🤔 Co FUNDUSZE INWESTYCYJNE Myślą o ANALIZIE TECHNICZNEJ? – Poznaj ICH Sekrety. [Stop Loss, Analiza Techniczna]

Forement. Fore. What do hedge funds think of technical analysis? Some of them love it and some of them hate it. And I think you have to really specify what you mean by technical analysis. If technical analysis means optically looking at the chart and looking at heads and shoulders and stuff like that, it becomes very difficult to test. Um you see you might look at this today and see it's a heads and shoulders and in five years time you might see something completely different. Maybe a cup with handle. What influenced you to make those choices you can't determine. You can't test. So as long as the thing isn't you can't write it down as a set of rules that you know even a guy that doesn't speak English and sits in Mongolia can replicate then it's not useful and shoulders. David, it's always looked upon as negative. Uh certainly at the uh retail trader level, institutional traders are taught from their first day that they buy good levels or they don't buy at all. Uh unfortunately, most retail traders will wait for some confirmation before they get in. That could be a candle pattern, could be a moving average cross uh or whatever. uh institutional traders will buy at the level. Now, most traders will put their stop-loss a tick under the last low and they will invariably put their stop-loss at exactly where the institutional orders are. I think that institutional traders are just doing what institutional traders do, putting their uh entry points at very good levels. However, uh if you are uh trading at the institutional level, uh it's not always easy to get filled. Uh at the retail level, if you want to buy 100 shares, you want to buy uh the pound against the dollar at a five or a point, you press the little button and you've got it. At the institutional level, it's not that simple. uh and you've got in on occasions to actually generate the liquidity to get aboard. I don't think that anybody looks at where the stops are, but they will say to themselves, well, we know pretty sure that most of the stops will all be crowded around this obvious level. So, uh they will bid the market at that particular level. All you need is one person to chicken out and the markets are going to go where the bids are and all those people will be taken out. Uh so I think that uh if you uh do not think long and hard about where you're going to put your stops that you're going to find that you can quite easily die in a sea of stop losses. Okay. Uh uh and uh uh earlier on we we talked about one of my things that I think about all the time. And here's an exercise for some people. The next time you're just about to put a trade on, you pick up something heavy and you just go poof. And then you write down on a piece of paper where you were going to buy and where you're going to put your stop loss. Don't buy it, but put an order in to buy it at where you're going to put your stop-loss. And then just watch how many times the market goes to your order. Okay? Markets uh will go uh to the obvious stops most of the time. And one of my rules uh is that I want to put my entries where the masses put their stops. So I think that you can think your way through most of that. Uh but you really need to spend some time in being brave and getting in at a good level. If you don't get in at a good level, there's nothing that upsets me more than a guy saying that this is a very risky trade. I'll use a tight stop loss. That's just rubbish because uh you'll get stopped out over and over and over again. The stop needs to be where the stop needs to be. So, if your entry is sloppy, then your stop loss is going to have to be a red bus away from where you got in at to give yourself a chance of staying in the move. The average true range will help with that. Most traders will look at a stop-loss of two and a half times the average true range or something like that. Nevertheless, if you want to get in with low stop- losses at institutional levels, you got to be brave. The institutional traders uh will use um Fibonacci levels. They will use trend lines. They will use simple horizontal support and resistance levels to actually look for confluences to try and place their orders. Nothing clever. Okay. And unfortunately, most retail traders, as I say, will look for some form of confirmation uh and their stop-loss uh will then be too close and they'll get taken out in the noise. Stop loss. So much foreign. Stop loss. Fore if we are thinking of hedge funds are they taking support resistance into account before they're taking a placing a trade or an investment. Now, it's important to kind of distinguish here what we're talking about. I would hazard a guess that hedge funds at the very top end like your Bridgewater like any kind of really big fund that's managing a massive amount of money really doesn't care about this because unless they've got a sub fund that's very technical and small which I don't think they have because they've got so much money it wouldn't make any sense they don't care about this because their holding times are much longer they're much more interested in different things we'll forget in a second. So, they don't. But then when we go down to the smaller end of the scale, like people who are still running funds, the couple that I've worked with that are on the lower end of the scale, they're not the Bridgewater scale. They're not very very low end, but the couple that I've worked with before have taken it into account because they're not 100man team. They're a small team managing a decent amount of money, but a modest amount when you compare it to the big guys. And the people in charge of making those trades may well have a decision making process that is integrated with some kind of technicals because they can do it because they're not trying to move 200 million around. They're not trying to put move massive amounts of money around. Then maybe they're moving 20 million around, 30, 40, 50, that kind of stuff, which is small change compared to the billions up there. A hedge fund investing capital isn't going to care about support and resistance because they're looking for an edge elsewhere. Maybe they're looking for an edge in some emerging market that someone hasn't seen. Maybe they recognize that this specific currency is going to be devalued more against this because they've got information that retail is going to struggle here and the mining companies and all that. So, they make a bet based on that. It may well be stuff like they're trading uh stocks based on earning cycles. So they're waiting to see earnings and then they see earnings kind of maybe changing a little bit of sentiment in the call. They start to invest in the stock looking for a recovery from that. portfolio manager, the citizens business bank. I am going to be a huge contrarian to everybody else who said be careful, be careful, be careful. Have tight stop losses, tight stop, tight stop- losses. I am certain is the main reason why most traders don't make money because before a trade moves your way, it usually moves the opposite way because the people in the market don't want they have to make money from you and they know they're going to close you out because most of you have tight stop losses. So, you never get to make money. I'd say if you're confident about a trade, don't have tight stop losses. Have a big big gap between your stop- losses. So if it goes down and it backs up to where you want, you're still in the trade and you're not taken out, I would say stop losses are I would say is the main reason why most traders don't make money even when they get it right when they know the direction is right and they still get taken out because of your stop- losses. I say don't listen to anyone who says have really tight stop- losses. If you are confident, don't have tight stop losses. You will lose money even if you are right in guessing the direction. Are they ever a good idea? They are they're good ideas sometimes. But then I would say if you're not sure about your trade, then don't do it. Don't do it. It's it's a good idea. If you have a huge position that you know over the weekend or whatever some massive political event is going to happen and by the time you can catch up with it is too late you wiped out. So in that case it's good to have a stop-loss but still I would say don't have your stop losses too tight if you can help it. You know, if it's a you have to judge where you are, what what what time of year you are, what what's going on geopolitically, whether it's safe generally to keep your position open without much of a without tight stop-loss. Stop losses I would say if there is a research done that your people would find is the main reason why when they guess the market direction right they got they made never made money because they get taken out and the people who run the markets they know they game they know if they go down before they go up they've taken you out how do you manage risk I manage risk I don't really I'm not a very good risk manager because I'm very brave in my trades. I go all the way in and uh but I consider where I am at that time. What are my risks more more on an intuitive level and when I do I go in all the way in. I mean now I am all the way into Christmas on Dow Jones hitting 19,000 and I think it will. What methods do you employ to minimize losses? Uh I generally have have a stop loss but my stop losses are not tight at all. Stop losses really and intuition and if I see a trade is not going my way I know it within a day I don't have to wait five weeks to know within a day I know if this trade is not going to my go my way and I close it. I was going to ask so what do you do? Do you close you? I close it and I no feelings. How do you determine if a trade has failed other than its performance after entry? I think if it has gone too far, let's say I have gone long, I have bought and it's gone too far down on in the first couple of days, even the first day, I know this is not going to go my way and I close it. I think within a day, I know if I should close it, but I don't know if this work for someone who's trading FX or, you know, because it's quite quick. I think if you see it, it's not you've got a kind of time frame in your head. If it's going too much in the other direction, another pattern is developing. So, you close it without feeling and you wait to recognize the pattern again. You make up for it. forchech. Fore trading. Fore trading. Ch.